03/10/2009

New poll predicts Plaid win in Ceredigion

The largest ever poll of UK marginal constituencies released on Friday by the respected polling company Politics Home/YouGov has marked Ceredigion down as a Plaid Cymru gain at the next General Election.

The poll was carried out in September questioning 34,610 people across 238 constituencies. The picture in the 18 most marginal seats in Wales showed eight Conservative gains and three for Plaid Cymru – Arfon, Ynys Mon and Ceredigion – taking the party to its largest ever representation at Westminster.

Voters were weighted by age, gender and social class and then asked their voting intention, whether they were likely to vote and whether they would vote for the party they wanted to win or tactically. Finally they were asked to consider the candidates and parties in their own constituency.
It's this kind of consituency-based detail that makes the poll more significant than most.

The poll concluded that the Conservatives would win a majority at Westminster of 70 seats. Those in Wales that would change hands are:
Aberconwy: Labour (notional) to Tory
Arfon: Labour (notional) to Plaid
Bridgend: Labour to Tory
Cardiff North: Labour to Tory
Carmarthen West & South Pembs: Labour to Tory
Ceredigion: Lib Dem to Plaid
Gower: Labour to Tory
Newport West: Labour to Tory
Vale of Clwyd: Labour to Tory
Ynys Mon: Labour to Plaid
Vale of Glamorgan: Labour to Tory

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