11/04/2011

Ceredigion Poll - Plaid well ahead. Big swing from Lib Dems to Labour.

A dramatic poll on the Assembly Election in Ceredigion, which local activists have been talking about for days, has tonight been published at Wales Online.

It puts Plaid Cymru, represented by Elin Jones, well ahead on 42% but also shows a huge loss of support by the Lib Dems to Labour.

The Conservatives and 'Others' (predominantly the Greens) also increase their share of the vote, bringing the constituency closer to the four-way contest it was a few years ago when all the main parties regularly achieved double-figure percentages.

Plaid Cymru  42% (-7%)
Lib Dems  23% (-13%)
Labour  20% (+15%)
Conservatives  11% (+3%)
Others  4% (+2%)

Figures in brackets compare to the last Assembly election in 2007

The poll hasn't been conducted by a conventional polling company but by students at the International Politics department at Aberystwyth University, bringing it some detractors. I understand the Lib Dems have been furiously contesting its validity and trying to prevent publication, as might be expected. The Wales Online article is transparent in including discussion on how the poll was conducted. Nevertheless, the University's record of getting similar polls right in the past, and the very large number of voters questioned (1,195) in a constituency with a small population means it will be taken seriously by most.  

The poll is also backed by canvassing results from different parties which are showing that the left-leaning swing voters who helped the Lib Dems win Ceredigion in last year's Westminster election are dropping the party like a stone since their alliance with the Conservatives at Westminster.

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