New poll predicts Plaid win in Ceredigion

The largest ever poll of UK marginal constituencies released on Friday by the respected polling company Politics Home/YouGov has marked Ceredigion down as a Plaid Cymru gain at the next General Election.

The poll was carried out in September questioning 34,610 people across 238 constituencies. The picture in the 18 most marginal seats in Wales showed eight Conservative gains and three for Plaid Cymru – Arfon, Ynys Mon and Ceredigion – taking the party to its largest ever representation at Westminster.

Voters were weighted by age, gender and social class and then asked their voting intention, whether they were likely to vote and whether they would vote for the party they wanted to win or tactically. Finally they were asked to consider the candidates and parties in their own constituency. It's this kind of consituency-based detail that makes the poll more significant than most.

The poll concluded that the Conservatives would win a majority at Westminster of 70 seats. Those in Wales that would change hands are:

Aberconwy: Labour (notional) to Tory

Arfon: Labour (notional) to Plaid

Bridgend: Labour to Tory

Cardiff North: Labour to Tory

Carmarthen West & South Pembs: Labour to Tory

Ceredigion: Lib Dem to Plaid

Gower: Labour to Tory

Newport West: Labour to Tory

Vale of Clwyd: Labour to Tory

Ynys Mon: Labour to Plaid

Vale of Glamorgan: Labour to Tory